Vim Beverage · Compass packet

What Vim Beverage is worth today

Vim Beverage is worth about $6.68M today, based on its own cash flow and the risks a buyer would price in.

Why it matters: the number is not fixed. Every risk on the next page raises the return a buyer demands, and every one you fix moves the price up.

The number: $6.68M enterprise value, about 3.5× revenue and 17.9× EBITDA.

The cash behind it: $1.92M of revenue growing 59.8% a year at a 19.4% EBITDA margin, about $373K of EBITDA today.

The buyer's return: future cash is discounted at 18.0% a year, the return a buyer would need to take this on. More risk means a higher rate and a lower price.

The Perfect P&L link: at 19.4% you sit inside the 18-24% EBITDA target for Carnival. Reaching the top of the range would add about $2.90M.

Enterprise value $6.68M 3.5× revenue · 17.9× EBITDA

EBITDA margin19.4%inside the 18-24% target

Revenue today$1.92Mgrowing 59.8% a year

The next five years

Revenue and EBITDA from the model's own assumptions: 59.8% growth a year, EBITDA margin held at 19.4%. Both panels share one dollar scale.

Go deeper

Enterprise value is a discounted cash flow estimate. The model projects five years of free cash flow from the assumptions below, discounts each year at 18.0% (the discount rate, which finance people call WACC), and adds a terminal value for everything the business keeps earning after year five. About 87% of today's number comes from that terminal value.

The discount rate builds up from four parts: the risk-free rate, the market's equity risk premium scaled by beta, a size premium, and the company-specific risk scorecard. The size premium and the scorecard are judgment scales, not market data. Two reasonable people can land 200 or more basis points apart.

Assumptions

Revenue base: $1.92M, the trailing-year figure the model starts from.
Growth: 59.8% revenue growth a year through the five-year projection.
Margin: 19.4% EBITDA margin held across the projection.
Beta: 0.98, set from the Restaurant/Dining industry.
Size premium: +500 bps for a business this size.
Company-specific risk: +580 bps from the risk scorecard on the next page.
Market rates: 10-year Treasury 4.67% and equity risk premium 4.23% (Treasury as of Aug 27, 2026).

Known caveats

Net working capital, % of revenue is left at the model's own default. The balance sheet shows AR, inventory, and AP at a flat $0.00 for 36 straight months, which does not reflect the real net-30 collection delays the calls describe, so no honestly derived figure exists yet.

Staff note: Scenario range hidden: the Base scenario values the business at $3.09M against the $6.68M headline (Base cost of equity 12.0% vs the build-up's 19.6%). In the DCF app, click "Set Base = current inputs", then save the valuation again.

The risks a buyer would price in

Ten risks are holding about $5.16M off the price. With every one fixed, Vim Beverage would be worth about $11.8M.

Why it matters: the biggest one, key-person reliance, is worth about $1.13M on its own. That is where the plan starts.

Key-person reliance: costing about $1.13M today (Heavy reliance). Fixed looks like: Documented bench + SOPs.

Customer concentration: costing about $743K today (>35%). Fixed looks like: <=10%.

Revenue channel dependency: costing about $357K today (High (one >60%)). Fixed looks like: Diversified (no single >30%).

What each risk is costing today

Key-person reliance $1.13M

Customer concentration $743K

Revenue channel dependency $357K

Gross margin volatility $265K

FP&A / reporting maturity $265K

Contract terms $235K

Ops complexity $235K

Supplier dependency $145K

Revenue retention $86,675

Working-capital collectability $86,675

Every risk fixed+$5.16M to $11.8M

Each bar is what fixing that one risk alone would add to the price. Fixed together they compound, so the total is larger than the bars added up. Every half-point of risk removed is worth about $277K.

Go deeper

Where you are, and what fixed looks like

Risk	Today	Fixed looks like	Added to the buyer's return	Cost today
Key-person reliance	Heavy reliance	Documented bench + SOPs	+175 bps	$1.13M
Customer concentration	>35%	<=10%	+120 bps	$743K
Revenue channel dependency	High (one >60%)	Diversified (no single >30%)	+60 bps	$357K
Gross margin volatility	High (>5 pp)	Low (std dev <= 2 pp)	+45 bps	$265K
FP&A / reporting maturity	Ad-hoc reporting	Audited/robust monthly closes & KPIs	+45 bps	$265K
Contract terms	Month-to-month / transactional	>=12-month contracts / prepaid	+40 bps	$235K
Ops complexity	Mixed custom + productized	Productized / low customization	+40 bps	$235K
Supplier dependency	Replaceable vendor	None or redundant suppliers	+25 bps	$145K
Revenue retention	95–109%	>=110%	+15 bps	$86,675
Working-capital collectability	Some slippage	Clean (low DSO, immaterial write-offs)	+15 bps	$86,675

Basis points (bps) are hundredths of a percent added to the yearly return a buyer would need. The scorecard totals +580 bps.